from the standing-desk of
David H. King | President & CEO
 

“It’s the Economy Stupid”
 

The economy, the economy, the economy. Is it good? Is it bad? Or is it just “mid,” as the kids say? That really depends on who you’re talking to. The “economy” is incredibly complex, but most people judge it by two metrics: 1) inflation and 2) the stock market. However, the economy is much more diverse and complicated than that. You can have a good economy and a bad economy at the same time—again, depending on your perspective. For example, if your business heavily depends on gasoline, then for you, the economy is looking pretty good right now. As I write this, the national average price for a gallon of gas is under $2.50, a lot better than the $5+ of a couple of years ago. But let’s say your business depends heavily on beef—specifically Prime beef. Then, for you, the economy isn’t great right now. The cost of beef—due to reasons like screw worms, the cost of feed, and herd size reductions during and after COVID—is through the roof. So, for you, your costs have exploded, and the economy feels bad.

Why the economy 101 lesson? Because we really can’t trust our eyes and ears anymore when it comes to politics and media. Inflation is actually significantly down from two years ago—that’s a good thing. But prices are still high because that’s how most things work. When it comes to prices, the old “what goes up must come down” adage does not apply. The stock market is up, but home prices (and inventory) are sky-high. Eggs prices are down, but beef remains unaffordable for many. My point is, if you listen, watch, or read news, the message you get is either “it’s terrible” or ‘it’s great,’ when the truth of the matter is it’s neither.

Now, to my real point. No matter what you think about the state of “the economy,” 2025 looks promising for giving in 2026. The most reliable predictor of giving is the performance of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 rises, giving usually follows. As of December 10, 2025, the S&P 500 has gained over 1,000 points—from 5,864 on January 1 to 6,870 today—an increase of 17% since January 1, which is excellent performance. If past trends hold, this likely means increased philanthropy in 2026. That’s the part of the economy that truly influences philanthropy.

So, as you enjoy the holidays and your (relatively) cheap gasoline while lamenting the cost of a New York Strip at your local restaurant, you can take some solace in the fact that the most important part of the fundraising “economy” is doing very well. Here’s hoping it lifts giving in 2026.