From the Desk of

David H. King ¦ President

I’m not much of a Grateful Dead fan, but their iconic line feels fitting as I reflect on 2024.

After a decline in giving in 2022 (according to Giving USA), I was eager to see how Giving USA 2023 would report on last year’s giving trends. The results? Giving was up slightly. BUT—and if there were an award for “Word of the Year,” I think BUT would win by a landslide—it wasn’t enough to keep pace with inflation. In simple terms, we raised more money, but that money could buy less.

As we all know, inflation over the past couple of years reached levels not seen in more than four decades. And honestly, there was no clear model to predict how this would affect charitable giving. Looking back at the 1970s for guidance on what 2024 might hold wasn’t helpful. Just think about how much has changed:

• The smartphone in your hand today holds more computing power than almost any computer from the 1970s.
• News took a day (or more) to reach the public.
• Stock ownership was rare among “everyday” people.
• Cash dominated purchases, while credit and debit cards were nearly nonexistent.

It was a fundamentally different world, making any comparisons to that era unreliable. What we do know now is that inflation impacts giving—growth in 2023 fell well below the 20-year average.

Still, inflation didn’t stop Americans from contributing generously. Sorting through the data on giving, GDP, disposable income, inflation, wage growth, and more was, frankly, mind-numbing—even for a self-proclaimed data geek like me. Despite our best efforts, we still don’t have definitive takeaways from 2023, and we may never.

Now, let’s talk about the rest of the year. Presidential election years are always “interesting,” and this one was no exception. Without fail, every election year, someone asks me whether political giving impacts philanthropic giving. Historically, the answer has been no—there’s no strong correlation. Most people seem to view political contributions and charitable donations as entirely separate activities.

BUT—yes, here’s that word again—this election cycle was unprecedented. Between the two major parties and their associated PACs, over $3 billion was raised, shattering previous records. So, what does that kind of massive political fundraising mean for philanthropy? Will it negatively affect charitable giving? On the other hand, will the stock market’s sharp rise in 2024 offset any potential impact? After all, the S&P 500‘s direction is closely correlated with charitable giving trends.

The truth is, we’ll have to wait for Giving USA 2024 to shed light on these questions. Will it provide the answers we’re looking for? I’m not sure. BUT, after the year we’ve just had, nothing would surprise me.